Look at the evidence
Compare the recorded forecast with the founder's expected outcome.
Identify assumptions behind each adjustment.
Track which assumptions changed and what evidence supported the change.
A case to think through
The founder discounts a pipeline opportunity because of a customer's history, but that context is not recorded. The team cannot reproduce the judgement.
This is a hypothetical operating example, not a client result.Avoid a misleading conclusion
Calling judgement 'data' without recording its basis makes a forecast difficult to review or transfer.
Useful operating information has an understood definition, source, owner and freshness. Keep observations separate from assumptions and forecasts. A reporting view can support the management team, but it should not create a second manually maintained record or turn an unknown value into a reassuring zero.
Your evidence check
Bring supporting and contrary examples. A self-reported answer is a starting point; these notes do not calculate or validate a score.
| Prompt | Notes from your case |
|---|---|
| Forecast | |
| adjustment | |
| assumption | |
| supporting evidence | |
| later result |
Should forecasts exclude human judgement?
No. Distinguish observed facts, assumptions and judgement, and make their provenance clear.
See the wider pattern.
20 questions. An indicative, self-reported result with a five-dimension profile and an optional conversation.
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